gambitch - now available in blue

Saturday, June 12, 2004

Where to begin? There are lots of places to choose from, but with Euro 2004 beginning tonight, this item looks to be the best choice, because if I posted this any later, I'd be behind time. So for those who were not looking forward to more football, please bear with me.

I won't be watching too many matches, unfortunately, because I have too many other things to do, but here is a quick run-down of the various teams and who I think would do well.

Group A (Portugal, Greece, Spain, Russia) - A decently balanced group, with an Iberian derby of Portugal vs Spain the highlight match of the lot. Spain look favourites to qualify top of the group, and they well should, considering the quality oozing out of the lineup. Raul, Morientes, Canizares, Baraja, Valeron, Joaquin, Helguera, Puyol... Frightening. Their only weakness is defence, and it would not really matter whether Salgado was available or not. It was a good thing they did not bring along Francesco Pavon, but Raul Bravo does not inspire much confidence either. Nevertheless, they should have too much class for the Russians and the Greeks (who they are desperate to beat as revenge for an earlier loss in the qualifiers), and Portugal look the likelier to join them in the quarter-finals. Some quarters have billed the Greeks as the dark horses for the tournament, but I have a better candidate.

Group B (France, England, Croatia, Switzerland) - Obviously everyone is backing France and England to make it through, and I would instinctively agree looking at this group. France are just too strong and irresistable with Thierry Henry and David Trezeguet, and as long as they protect Zidane they'll be fine. Japan/Korea 2002 should have taught them a few lessons. England look like they are in good shape to just pip the Croats and the Swiss, though I still have lingering doubts over David James. This would be the perfect time for Scholes to end his three-year England goal drought, and I fancy him to do just that. England's likely star players? Sorry, not Owen or Becks. I'd stick my neck out for Frank Lampard and Steven Gerrard, who could prove to be the strongest England midfield axis in recent years, a good display by Nicky Butt notwithstanding. I hope Butt gets a chance to show some stuff too. I know the Swiss a little better than I do the Croats, and while that's a bad way to judge who is the stronger, I would at least say the Swiss would not be a total embarrassment in Portugal this year.

Group C (Italy, Denmark, Bulgaria, Sweden) - Italy look like clear favourites to go through from this group, since they are on paper an obvious class above everyone else. But who will join them? Not Denmark. Their fairytale victory in 1992 came thanks to a generation of truly world-class players like goalkeeper Peter Schmeichel (thanks Schmikes for your contributions to Old Trafford) and the Laudrup brothers. Who do they have now? Tomasson, Rommendahl, Ebbe Sand, Sorensen... Familiar names, yes, but not exactly on the same notch as the 1992 squad. It's a push between Sweden (who have Henrik Larsson back!) and Bulgaria. The Swedes have the overall advantage, but I fancy the Bulgars to proceed to do well after Euro 2004, since they are building on a core of young players who have yet to show everything they have. In fact I would not be too insane to predict that the Bulgars, led by Stilian Petrov, could well be the real dark horses of this tournament.

Group D (Holland, Germany, Czech Republic, Latvia) - Ah, yes, the Group of Death. Latvia would be lucky to collect a point from their first two games. Depending on how things shape out, they might well get one in the third, but nobody is expecting a win. Germany and Holland will be fighting for the title of "Underachiever of the Tournament" this time round, and while it is a shame for two teams with the biggest reputations in the world, I don't expect otherwise. Germany are arguably at their weakest in a decade, with a frontline that does not inspire fear and a defence that relies too much on Oliver Kahn. Holland are supremely talented, but continued infighting and seriously inflated egos like that of Clarence Seedorf have sown the seeds for yet another Dutch debacle. Against a backdrop like this, it is entirely possible that the likes of Tomas Rosicky, Pavel Nedved and Jan Koller would quickly be saying Czech-mate to the Big Two.

So who do I think will win? The soundest bet is on Italy, whose weakest department is their strikeforce, and if a lineup that features Vieri and Del Piero can be considered their weak link, with Cassano, Totti and Di Vaio in wait and Inzaghi not even making the trip, everyone should be afraid, real afraid. My second pick is Spain, who are skilful and have the flair, but they have to play to their strengths and keep the defence tight. If Puyol and Helguera can marshal the defence well, and Bravo doesn't get too many games, there could yet be a way out for the Spanish, who will face some tough opposition in the quarter-finals. France are a close call for third choice, as I am not convinced that Barthez's excellent form in the French league will necessarily translate here. They have a good backline, and their attack is frightening, but too much depends on Zidane being fit (first and foremost) and on form. Henry and Trezeguet need to pick up some responsibility, and Pires and Vieira have to learn to play without Zizou. They can do it - they do that all season at Arsenal - but donning the blue strip could prove mind-altering.

Bulgaria look well-placed to pull off a few upsets, but if they lose out to Sweden in the group stage I would expect the Scandinavians to give either the French or the English an interesting ride. Portugal, England, the Czech Republic, Holland and Germany may all add a few unpredictable elements of their own, but I doubt they can go for much more than a place in the quarter-finals. Anything beyond that should really be regarded as a bonus, at least in my opinion.

But the game isn't played on paper. I might be wrong on more than one count, but who cares? Just sit back and enjoy the tournament!

gambitch [ 1:51 PM]

Thursday, June 10, 2004

Months and months of twists and turns later, there is only one result: I am back.

These months while I have been away, many things have happened. You can say real life caught up with me and led me to check out a different path. Whatever. All that matters is I'm back.

I should really dust the place a bit. God knows what cobwebs have appeared while I was away!

There are many tales to tell, many opinions to share, many fantasies to realize. I don't have the time to go through everything at once, but time remains on my side, for now. A quick summary of some of the more memorable things:

- A friend has written a book and the title story involves me! I am flattered. The book is not in contention for Bestseller of the Year.
- I fell in love with SimCity4, Emperor, Zeus and Civ3. World-building has become a hobby of sorts.
- Manchester United won the FA Cup in a season of relative disappointment. There's always next year!
- I appeared on national television! More than twice! And gave my comments once regarding unneighbourly behaviour.
- A family member with a long-term illness has started on the road to normalcy.
- I picked up an interest in watching golf and The West Wing. Exciting and lovely.
- Some friends have returned from overseas studies. I am trying to congratulate them, provided we re-establish contact.

That's it for now. More to come...

gambitch [ 2:48 AM]